Guatemala reports a homicide rate of 16.8 per 100,000 inhabitants as of March 2026, according to data presented by Interior Minister Marco Antonio Villeda on Wednesday at the roundtable discussion “Security and Development in Guatemala: Strengthening Coexistence for a Prosperous Future,” organized by Fundesa, which is part of the opening events of the 2026 National Business Leaders Conference (ENADE).

The Fundesa Coalition for Public Safety proposed cutting homicides in half over the next ten years—that is, reducing the rate from 16 to eight per 100,000 inhabitants. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, violence costs Guatemala up to 7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to Juan Mini, president of the ENADE 2026 organizing committee, security affects not only the country’s development but also thousands of Guatemalan families. “Strengthening security is necessary for a prosperous future. Without security, there is no investment, no jobs, and no well-being,” he stated.

He added that in 2024, year in which the last ENADE survey was carried out, focused on security, Guatemala had a homicide rate of 31 per 100,000 inhabitants. At that time, the country ranked among the most dangerous in Latin America and the world. “Now we are among the moderately dangerous countries,” he said.

He reiterated that over the past five years, the country has failed to reduce the homicide rate of 16 per 100,000 people. “We’re stuck, and sometimes the number is even going up. To become a truly safe country—which is the dream of all Guatemalans—there is still much to be done to reduce homicides, extortion, gang activity, and drug trafficking,” he said.

In that context, Minister Villeda explained that the most significant increase began in 2000 and peaked in 2010. “It was the most violent year in our country’s history, with a rate of 46.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants,” he noted.

Starting in 2011, the trend began to decline, reaching its lowest point in 2020, during the pandemic. “It was the least violent year in our country’s history, with an average of 15 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants,” he said.

Subsequently, the rate rose to 16.6 in 2021. “In 2025, when I took office, we were at an average of 17.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants,” he noted. He added that, following the implementation of states of emergency, states of prevention, and other strategies since November, the rate stands at 16.4 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

Failures of the prison system

Minister Villeda noted that homicidal violence in Guatemala stems from multiple factors. “We have violence caused by drug trafficking, gangs, common crime, and personal vendettas, among other things,” he explained.

He added that the phenomenon is geographically concentrated. “Seventy percent of homicides occur in two departments: Guatemala and Escuintla,” he noted. He also pointed out that 70% of extortion cases originate in prisons.

Villeda noted that one of the main structural problems lies in the prison system, due to overcrowding and limited oversight capacity. “We have 25 prisons with a capacity for 7,000 inmates, but there are currently nearly 24,000, according to the biometric census that was completed in January,” he explained. According to the official, this represents an overcrowding rate of 340%. 

Adding to this situation is a shortage of staff. “We have a total of 4,000 prison guards—that is, 2,000 per shift—to oversee 24,000 inmates,” he noted. 

He noted that salary conditions also affect the system’s operation. “Prison guards are very poorly paid, with salaries of around Q4,000 a month, which makes them susceptible to being bribed by criminals,” he stated.

Proposals

According to Juan Mini, reducing the country’s homicide rate will require a coordinated and consensus-based strategy to be developed in the coming months among the various stakeholders. “Security is not a luxury; it is an essential prerequisite for economic progress and social well-being,” he said.

He added that achieving this goal requires transforming the justice system. “We must ensure efficiency, accountability, technology, supportive regulations, supportive laws, trained staff, investment, and public awareness,” he explained.

He also emphasized that the prison system must be reformed and expanded to include new maximum-security prisons. “That is where most of the extortion in the country originates; many crimes are organized there, and sometimes the most dangerous inmates escape,” he said. He also highlighted the need for greater institutional coordination. He noted that the Ministry of the Interior must work closely with the Ministry of National Defense, the Judicial Body, and the Attorney General´s Office to strengthen criminal prosecution. In addition, he called on the government to ensure efficiency and transparency in the use of resources.

For his part, Minister Villeda agreed on the need for broader coordination within the security system. “The Ministry of the Interior is only one part of the country’s security system. It is just one of the legs of the table. The other agencies must also fulfill their roles,” he said.

He also highlighted the need to improve coordination among institutions. “The natural partner of the Minister of the Interior is the Attorney General. There must be constant communication to request search and arrest warrants, and to carry out operations against criminal activities,” he explained.

In that regard, he emphasized the importance of the role of the Attorney General´s Office and the judicial system. “We need an Attorney General´s Office that investigates and an independent judicial system, with judges who issue the appropriate rulings and do not allow criminals to be released in less than 24 hours,” he said.

He added that new projects, such as the prisons in Izabal and Masagua, Escuintla, aim to implement a different model. “We cannot build new prisons only to have them run by the same guards who have been involved in acts of corruption,” he said.

The minister also indicated that the goal is to expand the security staff. “We need to increase the number of prison guards and renew the guard force, which is currently susceptible to acts of corruption and failure to follow protocols,” he noted.

On the subject of law enforcement, he reported that 3,000 officers have graduated and that another 3,000 are expected to join the force in July, in addition to the launch of a new recruitment drive. “The goal is to have 12,000 new officers on board by the end of the administration,” he explained.

He also announced the acquisition of equipment to improve operational capabilities. “We are going to purchase 1,000 patrol cars and 1,000 motorcycles. The last patrol cars were purchased in 2019, and if we don’t do this this year, we will face a severe mobility crisis,” he said.